VUB research reveals an unprecedented global trend of glacier disappearance

Koen Stein (VUB Press)
1 day ago
2 min read

A new international study led by ETH Zurich and the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) shows for the first time when individual glaciers around the world are expected to disappear. The conclusion is alarming: the planet is heading toward a period of unprecedented glacier extinction, with a global peak projected for the middle of this century.

The study, published today in Nature Climate Change, predicts that the number of disappearing glaciers will peak between 2041 and 2055. During that period, up to 4,000 glaciers per year could be lost. The researchers introduce a new concept to describe this phenomenon: peak glacier extinction, the moment when the global wave of glacier loss reaches its maximum.

Even under the most optimistic climate scenario, in which global warming is limited to +1.5°C, around 2,000 glaciers per year are still expected to disappear around the peak. Under a +4°C warming scenario, that number doubles. According to lead author Lander Van Tricht (ETH Zurich / WSL / VUB), this marks a profound tipping point for landscapes, ecosystems, and communities that are closely connected to glaciers.

The impacts vary strongly by region. In the Alps and the Caucasus, more than half of all glaciers could disappear within the next 10 to 20 years. In regions such as Alaska, Svalbard, and Arctic Canada, the peak will occur later, due to larger glaciers that respond more slowly to climate change.

Long-term projections are equally stark. By 2100, nearly half of today’s glaciers could still survive under a +1.5°C scenario. Under current climate pledges (+2.7°C), only about 20 percent would remain, and under +4°C less than 10 percent. In the European Alps, as few as 110 glaciers may remain under +2.7°C, and only around 20 under +4°C. Even the iconic Aletsch Glacier, the largest in the Alps, would largely disappear, surviving only as a series of small ice remnants.

According to the researchers, today’s climate policy will determine the scale of the loss. The faster global temperatures stabilize, the smaller and shorter the extinction peak will be. That difference determines whether 2,000 or 4,000 glaciers per year disappear in the middle of this century.

Glaciers are not only vital water reservoirs, but also major tourist attractions and powerful cultural symbols. Around the world, mourning rituals have emerged in response to vanishing ice giants, from glacier funerals in Iceland, Switzerland, and Nepal to an international “glacier cemetery” in Iceland. The study emphasizes that behind every disappearing glacier lies a place, a community, and a history.

The publication coincides with the end of the UN International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation (2025) and the start of the UN Decade of Cryospheric Sciences (2025–2034). It highlights the urgent need for ambitious climate policy: an earlier and smaller extinction peak still offers hope for a future with far more ice than currently projected to be lost.