Research identifies fossil fuel giants as driving force behind heatwaves

An international study published in Nature and led by ETH Zurich has, for the first time, established a direct link between the emissions of the world’s largest fossil fuel and cement producers and the rise of extreme heatwaves worldwide.

Shocking findings

Researchers analyzed more than 200 heatwaves between 2000 and 2023 and were able to systematically trace them back to the so-called carbon majors. The results show that climate change made heatwaves in the early 2000s twenty times more likely — increasing to up to two hundred times more likely in the following decade.

Emissions from just 180 companies account for about 60% of all cumulative CO₂ since 1850. The top 14 — including Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, and ExxonMobil — are each linked to more than 50 heatwaves that would have been virtually impossible without human influence.

Not a natural disaster, but human-made

“Extreme heatwaves are not purely natural disasters, but are directly fueled by the emissions of a relatively small number of actors,” said Yann Quilcaille, lead author of the study. Co-author and VUB climate scientist Wim Thiery highlighted the long-term impact: “Half of the children born in 2020 will face unprecedented heatwaves, compared to just one-sixth of the generation born in 1980.”

Implications for responsibility and justice

The study goes beyond science: it also provides new tools for climate law and policy. According to Thiery, this direct evidence offers a crucial resource for climate advocates, who can use it in legal cases against major polluters. It also strengthens the principle that “the polluter pays.”

The ETH team announced plans to expand attribution research to other extreme events such as floods, droughts, and wildfires.

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