Mass loss of Antarctic ice accelerating due to growing fractures

The Antarctic ice sheet is losing mass at an increasing rate due to cracks and fractures in its ice shelves. This is the conclusion of new research by Maaike Izeboud, postdoctoral researcher at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), and her colleagues from TU Delft. Their findings, published in Nature Climate Change, show how this damage has evolved over the past decades and what the consequences could be under different climate scenarios.

Izeboud and her team created a unique “fracture map” of Antarctica based on satellite images from the past twenty years. Using a new analytical method, they were able to precisely track the evolution of thousands of cracks. “You can literally see the ice fractures grow,” says Izeboud. “Some are hundreds of meters long.”

The study shows that if greenhouse gas emissions remain high, both the number and size of fractures will increase significantly, weakening the ice shelves. As a result, land ice can flow more quickly into the ocean, accelerating the mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet and contributing to rising sea levels.

There is, however, also good news. In scenarios where emissions are drastically reduced, the ice shelves remain much more stable and intact. This not only slows down the calving of icebergs but also reduces the rate of sea-level rise.

According to Izeboud, the results underline how essential it is to include the processes of fracturing and breaking in climate models. “When you place the scenarios side by side, one with continued warming and one with stabilization, you immediately see that the choices we make today will determine the fate of the Antarctic ice.”